During a recent Introduction to climate tele-meeting organised by Leading Sheep, Mr McRae said annual rainfall is on the decline in most of eastern Australia after a wetter run of seasons during the 1950s-1980s, while the mean temperature is also slowly trending upwards. This combination is likely to lead to an overall drying trend for eastern Australia.

Mr McRae is also running two three-hour sessions on 'Managing climate variability in your production system' and 'The latest on climate change research and science' at St George on 26 April and at Goondiwindi on 27 April.

Mr McRae said at the previous tele-meeting that one of the key points for Australian agriculture out of the 2007 Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change report is that El Niño events are becoming more common.

“For example since 1990, there have been eight El Niños identified which is an average of one every two years. This compares with three identified La Nina events during that time which is a rate of about one every five years.”

Mr McRae suggested that in adapting to climate change producers aim at managing seasonal and annual variability more effectively by looking at the strengths and what works in their industry now, and focus on that.

“Climate change is already resulting in changes in grazing systems from set grazing rates to more variable rotational spell grazing systems, changes in plant species and animal breeding cycles, changes in enterprise structure and the forced improvement of infrastructure,” he said.

Simple steps such as producers measuring their rainfall in line with the financial year so that it is more aligned with the natural summer rainfall influences can be useful. Mr McRae said 10-year moving average rainfall summaries can be produced from existing data to provide useful insights for producers who may be considering leaving, moving or expanding their enterprises.

A useful climate tool for producers is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating over Africa which travels eastward across the Indian ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30-60 days. It is a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts).

“The next likely MJO influence on Queensland weather is expected late February and then early April,” Mr McRae said.

Looking out to the future there is a 40-50 percent chance of receiving median* rainfall, for the rest of this summer through out Queensland. The 2006-07 El Niño event has ended, however it is worth remembering that while the end of El Niño would be associated with the return to more normal rainfall patterns it should not be seen as the start to drought breaking rains. However we can be optimistic that there will be a general easing of dry conditions in drought affected areas.

Explaining the link between the Southern Oscillation Index and Queensland rainfall, Mr McRae said that in the past 15 years over Australia there have been a lot more months with a negative SOI** than a positive SOI (which is the pattern associated with more low-pressure rain-bearing systems).

Producers interested in the workshops should contact Mr McRae on phone (07) 4688 1459 or email david.mcrae@dpi.qld.gov.au

Leading Sheep is an Australian Wool Innovation project in partnership with the DPI&F and Fisheries and supported by AgForce, which targets the adoption of new technologies and practices to increase the productivity and profitability of the Queensland wool industry.

For comment, contact David McRae on 07 4688 1459 or david.mcrae@dpi.qld.gov.au or Nicole Sallur on 07 4654 4220 or nicole.sallur@dpi.qld.gov.au

For more information about Leading Sheep, visit www.leadingsheep.com.au

*Median rainfall is the mid-range of rainfall totals, with 50 percent being above and 50 percent being below this figure, and removes the impact of occasional cyclone events.** The SOI is a climate tool that is a number between -20 and +20 which reflects the difference in air pressure between Darwin and Tahiti.